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Bitcoin will hardly drift to $15k but the road to $50k will not be smooth

 


Currently, there are many analysts making future predictions for the Bitcoin price. But we also understand that predictions are just predictions. $15k or $50k?. What number do you expect?

Usually, it's best not to trust a prediction at all, but to look at the on-chain metrics yourself. Looking at some of it, it can be argued that the claim of famous analyst Michaël van de Poppe on August 1 when Bitcoin started to fall after a 10-day green streak is not true.

“If Bitcoin corrects from here (which would be pretty good), bears will appear, Bitcoin forecast to drop to $15,000.”


Bitcoin plunges to $15,000?

It's not impossible, but at the moment it's certainly difficult. Investors who expect BTC to drop below $15k will have to wait a long time if not to say they will be disappointed. From a correction point of view, a slight drop will make sense on its own and be good for Bitcoin as well. However, a drop of nearly 62% seems unlikely. Even for those who are skeptical and distrustful of bitcoin.

This is mainly because the indicators seem to suggest that the worst case scenario is consolidation, not a sharp drop. For the price to slide to $15,000, the market would either be under selling pressure for months or take a massive plunge. At this point, none of the scenarios seem viable.

At the time of writing, the supply of profitable BTC increased 17% from 65.8% to 82.5% in just 13 days. Moreover, real profit is also at the highest level in 3 months.


This is the biggest proof that a prolonged bearish scenario is unlikely right now. Additionally, the liquidity supply represents the entity's inflows and outflows that are at all-time highs.

Such an upward move is proof that

Bitcoin is moving from retail traders to large traders

No bear market dragged BTC down to $15,000.


What about investors?

Right now, investors also seem to be backing the bullish action, as evidenced by increased investor sentiment and a higher daily address count.

The probability of a sharp price drop can also be eliminated when considering the MVRV ratio. Accordingly, Bitcoin is well positioned in the positive zone. Finally, NUPL also indicates BTC is in the Believe-Rejection zone, which is seen as another good sign for the market.

However, the cryptocurrency market does not work by any rules. So, even if it's very small, there is a chance that these on-chain indicators will be wrong and suddenly surprise. If that is the case then it is possible that BTC will drop to $15,000, despite all the evidence to the contrary.


Bitcoin Will Hit This Barrier Before Reaching $50,000

In fact, the average age of all coins on the Bitcoin network has been steadily increasing since mid-May. The two key age indicators, the Average Age of Coins and the Average Age of Dollars Invested, give similar results. on one's own. Thus, both of the aforementioned indicators emphasize the average age of all coins on the blockchain.

As can be seen from the attached chart, the trend is starting to change so far. Both curves have not followed an uptrend since the end of July. As the average age of dollars invested in Bitcoin gets younger and younger, it could be argued that the motionless Bitcoin is finally moving.

Notably, every price peak to date has been accompanied by a drop in both of these indicators. If both curves continue south from here, it would essentially imply a conclusion to Bitcoin's complacent performance.

Bitcoin's path to the upside will not be smooth and there are major hurdles to be overcome during this period. Bitcoin is currently facing a circulating supply problem. The number of unique tokens moved on the Bitcoin network was significantly low throughout July. Moreover, according to the chart, the magnitude of the price drop is also at its highest. In fact, a recent Santiment report shows:

“Based on the current market cap, our NVT ratio model indicates that it is the lowest circulating volume in the history of BTC.”


However, the indicator started to show some signs of resurgence in the past 3 days. This can be demonstrated by the three bar lows of July 2021 in the attached chart. This improvement needs to be accelerated in the coming days, or else it will likely hinder Bitcoin's bullish outlook.

Although a number of indicators are starting to give bullish forecasts, it should be noted that Bitcoin faces stiff resistance at $40,200. Only if the price breaks through that level and flips it to solid support can the rally start towards $50,000 and beyond.

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