Where will the peak of the uptrend season be?

 After the catastrophic correction on May 19, 2021, many people fear that BTC will return to 25k, even below 20k, and many people even predict the return to stone. But based on the past data, below I will give my personal opinion. Please feel free to share your thoughts with me.

Also in the same article, I hope that BTC will have 2 peaks like 2012, if that becomes a reality, where will the peak be?

What happened during the 2012 Halving cycle?

During the 2012 bull run, Bitcoin had two peaks at $266 on April 10, 2013 and $1,240 on November 29, 2013. The gain was 4.66x and took 233 days from the first spike to the top. Monday.

Looking at the rectangular box, we will see resistance at around $147.47, from resistance up to a 2nd peak corresponding to an increase of 8,408x.

Apply past data to this cycle

If the 2020 Uptrend Cycle exactly mimics the 2012 Cycle, then BTC will reach 302,427.29 ($64,898.56 x 4.66).

While this market is pretty crazy and this is entirely possible, as discussed in the previous post, BTC typically drops about 3.25x (the rule of thirds) from cycle to cycle. (read again in the previous post).

Using the rule of thirds, we should see Bitcoin rally 1,434 times from the first high of $64,898.56, which gives us a price target of $93,111.85 for the second top.

If we apply from resistance, we would see Bitcoin rally 2,589x from $45,870 to a price target of $118,742.29.

If applied exactly the same 233 days as in the 2012 cycle, the peak will fall on December 3, 2021. However, the uptrend season in 2017 has been 50% longer than the 2012 season (18 months compared to 12 months). ), applying that data to this season the peak would be March 29, 2022.

What does the extended FIBONACCI show?

Looking at the Fibonacci extension from the 2020 low at $3097.52 to the current high of $64.843.08, we see that the first extension target at 127.2 percent is 81,637.87 dollars and the next target at 161.8% is $103,001.83.

Using the rule of thirds for the full cycle, we can see Bitcoin price increase 10.37x from as low as $8,465.45, which would give us a price target of $87,777.27. (re-read the previous post for better understanding).

If we extend the number of days from the halving to the peak corresponding to the previous cycles, this cycle will last 688 days and we see the peak of the cycle on March 30, 2022.

All signs seem to point to a Bitcoin peak of $80k to $120k and could end at any point between December 3, 2021 and March 30, 2022.

It looks like we'll hit a cycle peak as US tax filing season approaches and people will sell off profits to pay taxes just like what happened at the first peak on April 14, 2021. 

Of course, we are all anxiously waiting for BTC to break key resistances (at $45k-$47k and previous all-time high at $65k), not to mention approval. of Bitcoin ETF by the SEC could blow up the market with higher gains.

We will probably never see Bitcoin below $20k again as the “Elon Musk” buy zone around $33k is holding.

All of the above are analysis from past data, to understand the present and predict the future. It may be right, it may be wrong, but it will be a perspective for people to have more information to help make a more accurate judgment…and.. indispensable that is….this is not investment advice.

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